Winds of change

Article by: Sankaralakshmi Sundaram

Story by : Sankaralakshmi Sundaram 

 

A dynamic shift in Commercial Vehicles (CV) is under way the world over; especially in the medium and heavy-duty segments.

Global trade is expected to grow at 4 per cent in 2015. Spend on logistics is reaching USD 10 trillion, and enough to anticipate that it reaches 12 per cent of the Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This comes amidst a scenario where logistics spending in several Asian and developing nations such as Mexico and Egypt is expected to decline on the back of improving freight efficiencies. This will be on the basis of investments in fleet infrastructure, and a reduction in transportation costs by half on account of the declining oil prices over a period of next five years. Value-added services such as telematics and anti-lock braking systems (ABS), and trade facilitation are likely to experience a marginal increase, leading to new vehicle procurement. This is expected to drive the demand for new vehicles. Medium Commercial Vehicles (MCV) growth in India is expected to be higher at 9.8 per cent (YoY). In the case of Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV), it is expected to be higher as well, at 12.5 per cent (YoY). The overall CV growth is expected to be 11.3 per cent (YoY) in 2015 against a global average of 3.5 per cent. The only other markets that are expected to post higher growth rates are the Next 11 (Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam and Bangladesh) at 8.7 per cent, and RoW (Eastern Europe except Turkey and Russia, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa) at 7.1 per cent. The winds of change in the form of changing customer buying preferences is not just likely to affect the operating dynamics, including total operational cost and lower downtime, it will, as a consequence, usher an evolution of business models and OEM product offerings in the global CV space.

Premium versus value

The global mass market (up to 220 hp) is forecast to decline by 2022 in percentage terms in the MDT (classified as good carriers with up to 16-tonne goods carrying capacity) and HDT (those that are capable of carrying more than 16-tonne) segments. In terms of unit sales however, it is forecast to grow by 18 per cent. The value segment (220-280 hp) is expected to more than double in the next eight years, largely driven by demand from China and India. Premium segment (over 280 hp) is expected to remain largely the same. Strict emission norms and evolving consumer requirements, coupled with the modernising of road and transport infrastructure, are rapidly altering China’s Commercial Vehicle (CV) dynamics. The market, dominated by Chinese OEMs (with over 90 per cent share), is expected to decisively move toward consolidation in the next six to eight years after decades of rapid growth. As a result, the entry-level mass market truck space is expected to remain flat. The growth impetus will lean more towards value trucks and premium trucks. India, in comparison, is expected to record double-digit growth rates of around 12 per cent across all segments. Combined MDT and HDT sales will reach more than 200,000 units in 2015. Low diesel prices and interest rate revisions, coupled with improving credit availability, will encourage fleets to invest in new equipment. Freight demand recovery, aided by the growth of the industrial sector, has driven demand from the start of 2015.

The Brazilian market will remain under severe stress as truck sales are expected to contract due to poor business conditions which is a result of low growth and high inflation. The economic scenario in Russia is likely to remain restrained as a weak ruble will curtail public infrastructure spending. Additionally, lower global oil prices have also affected the Russian economy. The combined truck market will shrink by 10 per cent in 2015. In US, market growth will continue into 2016 as freight demand expansion is expected to drive new truck sales in the region. The weakness in the economy since 2012 is expected to erode the market for commercial trucks in the Euro Zone.

Austerity measures, coupled with uncertainty surrounding member state defaults, have complicated the business environment in the Euro region leading to stringent vehicle financing options.

 

Affordable CVs

By 2022, 35 to 40 per cent of all the MDTs and HDTs sold globally are expected to be affordable. Market shares of western OEMs are expected to be increasingly challenged by low cost OEMs from China and India like FAW, Tata and Ashok Leyland in South America and Africa. The continuing economic uncertainty in North America and Western Europe is likely to push regional fleets to offer an entry to low-cost OEMs such as Hyundai. Entry-level trucks from most global OEMs will be priced at about USD 60,000-80,000 by 2022, creating opportunities for common global low cost truck platforms. Rising labour and material costs in emerging markets such as China and India have made the manufacture of low-cost products challenging. The value segment has grown in recent years in these markets, and mainly due to the need for engines with a higher power-to-weight ratio and the proliferation of more technology and safety features in trucks. Low fuel prices reduce running costs and make value segment trucks affordable, eventually leading to low Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Value trucks possess better safety features such as ABS and airbags and more comfortable cabs (with air conditioning and adjustable seats, etc., available at a premium). OEMs from India and China have formed strategic alliances and joint ventures with North American and European OEMs to improve their product offerings in terms of technology, reliability, safety, and comfort. This puts excruciating pressure on the OEMs to invest in R&D activities for cost optimisation. Various avenues of implementing cost reduction ideas effectively are being explored. Premium truck manufacturers are reluctant to introduce low-cost trucks into the market for fear of brand dilution. Customer perceptions can change quickly due to doubts regarding truck quality, reliability, and durability, which could hamper sales and eventually the manufacturer’s margins.

 

Gearing up for the future

The global trucking industry is moving towards increased emphasis on alternate fuels, enhanced safety standards, substantial weight reduction in highway trucks and tractor-trailers, and automated platooning to improve mileage. While a majority of the consumers, especially in the emerging economies, will continue to choose economy over innovation, global OEMs are all set to increase spending. European players are headed towards de-contenting. They want to enter into the mass market segment whereas the entry level players with strong local competencies are expanding their product range into the value and premium segments to foray into the global HDT and MDT market. Increased penetration of telematics and deployment of big data analytics across the value chain will aid OEMs in identifying alternate revenue streams from existing business models. It will also help them to stay attuned to customer expectations.

 

—————————————

Sankaralakshmi Sundaram is a senior research analyst at Automotive & Transportation Practice, Frost & Sullivan.

Frugal Tech

Article by: Anirudh Raheja
timthumb

Q & A

Vinod Aggarwal,

 

Chief Executive Officer,
VE Commercial Vehicles Ltd.

Interview by : Anirudh Raheja

Q. M&HCV sales have been growing. LCVs continues to drag. What do you foresee?

A. It is true that the overall heavy-duty segment (16-tonne and above) is doing well. If you drill down further to haulage, and construction and mining trucks, the haulage segment has gone back to almost 90 per cent of its earlier peak in 2011. It is expected to be close to 150,000 to 160,000 units in 2015 as against 175,000 units in 2011. This has primarily been led by replacement demand, and may touch the peak in 2016. Construction and mining trucks are still in recession. They accounted for 60,000 to 65,000 units in the 2001 peak times, and are likely to be down to around 35,000 to 40,000 numbers on an annual basis in 2015. Even though, there is good growth in high end coal mining tippers, demand for iron ore mines as well as construction tippers continue to be in the recession mode due to stagnation in infrastructure investments.

In light and medium duty trucks (5 to 15-tonne), the recession continues; even though the decline has stopped. If you look at 2011, this segment peaked at around 100,000 units per annum. It dropped to 65,000 units in 2014. The last year average of 5,000 units per month is still continuing in the current year, and has not witnessed further downfall. In August 2015, there was a growth of around 20 per cent in light and medium-duty trucks. Going forward we have to see when it will start to recover; will hit peak volumes once again. One of the reasons for recession in this segment is sentiments in the rural areas. They are not yet upbeat due to monsoon worries. The other reason is the funding problems small operators (who use light- and medium-duty trucks) are still facing. There is always a lag in the recovery between heavy-duty and light- and medium-duty trucks. The lag has been longer this time as against the normal lag of six to nine months.

 

Q. Has the dilution of stake by Volvo brought any change in the JV?

A. As far as the JV is concerned, there is no change whatsoever. The shareholding pattern as well as the corporate governance structure continues to be same as before. The dilution has happened in the Volvo Group’s holding in Eicher Motors, which was a financial investment. Volvo Group continues to hold 45.6 per cent share in the joint venture. The commitment of both the shareholders to the JV continues to be extremely strong and their actions speak for themselves. Volvo Group has set up an Euro VI medium-duty engine truck plant, VEPT, at Pithampur, to meet medium-duty engine requirements. They have also extended technologies that are required for the development of the Pro series of products. Both the partners have extended tremendous support that is required to meet the vision of driving modernisation in the commercial transportation in India as well the developing world.

 

Q. A significant milestone, the modern engine plant at Pithampur, what could come next?

A. We have industrialised Volvo’s 5-litre and 8-litre medium-duty engines in India by setting up a state of the art plant at Pithampur. The base engines are Euro VI emission compliant, and have been adapted to meet Euro III and Euro IV emission norms. They are also powering the Pro 6000 and Pro 8000 series in BS III and BS IV emission guise. At the VEPT plant, we are currently manufacturing 1,500-2,000 engines per month. The number will rise as sales of Eicher heavy-duty trucks rise, and as demand from Volvo Group grows. The installed capacity of the new plant is currently 50,000 engines per annum. It can be hiked to 100,000 units per annum.

 

Q. What about the market growth of VECV buses? Do you foresee a distinct shift with the implementation of bus code?

A. Last year our market share in the bus market was 15 per cent. In 2008, it was close to 6 per cent. We are steadily growing in the bus market, year-on-year. We are having a strong position in school and staff bus segments, and we are planning to become a strong player in other segments like route permit or inter-city coaches. Also, in State Transport Undertaking (STU) bus segments. As far as the new regulations under Bus Code are concerned, all the buses that are manufactured by us or by our body builders comply with it. One of the big challenges will be enforcement of these regulations in India that all regulatory agencies need to ensure.

 

Q. What is the current status of JNNURM II? What about AMRUT?

A. The execution of the schemes has been very slow. Tenders have been issued and bids have been accepted, yet STUs are finding it hard to get the right contractors to run these latest technology buses. There are also funding constraints with STUs due to which implementation of the schemes has been slow.  

 

Q. Are all the Pro series models out? How are they helping VE to carve out a place at the heavy-duty end?

A. We will continue to add more and more models as we go along. We have released nearly 90 per cent of the models in the light and medium duty CVs that operate under Pro 1000 and Pro 3000 series. In the heavy-duty segment, the launches have been slow.We have launched a few models under  Pro 6000 and Pro 8000 series. We are also in the process of releasing more models for heavy-duty segment in 2016. These new technology trucks offer significant advantages in fuel efficiency as well as turnaround time and will lead to higher life time profitability for the transporters. We consider it to be the future of Indian trucking industry. We are now making all the trucks ready for  BS IV emission norms that are becoming applicable in some parts of the country from October, 01, 2015, and in whole country from April, 01, 2017.

 

Q. There are talks of skipping BS V emission norms and moving to BS VI?

A. Both technically and commercially, it is not advisable to skip BS V. There are major changes required in engines as well as fuel like sulphur content in the emissions, major reduction is required in NOx and particulates. Apart from these, a very advanced electronics and controls are required that need not only huge investments but also the long lead time. Fuel companies also need to make major investments for reducing sulphur content in fuel. If the industry has to move to Euro VI from Euro IV in a short time, that will need huge investments and incremental cost of engine will also increase substantially. Therefore it is advisable to do the same in a proper sequence. Moving upto Euro V, and then to Euro VI.

 

Q. How far has the development on RESLF bus progressed?

A. Since the option is available to continue using the front engine buses, the concept of rear engine buses has not taken off well in the mass market products. Thus at the moment we are not pursuing RESLF buses.

 

Q. GST has been stalled? There is a talk of a new transport ministry with a dedicated secretary. How do you look at these developments?

A. The industry is looking forward to GST implementation for quite some time now as this will not rationalise the cascading taxes but also bring in efficiencies in distribution. Even though the government is very positive and committed, they are not able to move fast because of various reasons. Earlier we were thinking that GST will happen from April 01, 2016, but looks difficult now.

Setting up a new transport ministry with a dedicated secretary level person will bring in more focus on this important area and this it is a step in the right direction.

 

Q. What is your opinion on the FAME program?

A. It is an ambitious project, but electric mobility in India is still a few years away. With electric mobility, the costs will go up significantly. It will still take some time before it takes off in India.

 

Q. Eicher is known for frugal engineering, and Volvo is known for technology. What does it signify to the competition in terms of growth and new products?

A. We have adopted Volvo Group world-class technology using our frugal methods. We have been able to develop our entire new line of Pro series products from 5-tonne to 49-tonne at the right costs. We have optimised the investments and achieved much more with less investments. We now have an entire line of new products with latest technology adopted from the Volvo Group; a state of the art engine plant that produces Euro VI compliant engines for the need of the Volvo Group. We have a new state of the art bus body building plant; two new gear manufacturing plants, and a totally revamped and modernised truck plant with CED paint shop, and new assembly lines and a
body-in-white shop. We have a state of the art parts distribution centre and five company owned and operated dealerships. All these have been done at a cost of Rs. 2200 crore. We have achieved much more with less.

 

Q. Give us an update on Eicher Sure program?

A. Through this program we are trying to create an organised market place for used trucks. Since a truck comes back into the market in five years, remarketing it assumes a lot of importance. Keeping that in mind, we have taken this initiative to facilitate better realisation of the value of used trucks by getting the trucks refurbished. Eicher Sure team also helps in finding the right buyer. Earlier, the brokers used to pick up these trucks at throw away price and sell it at an exorbitant price, thus making a lot of money in the process. Eicher Sure team tries to connect the genuine buyers with sellers and that results in better value for used trucks.

 

Empowering Transporters

Article by: Rajesh Rajgor

Interview by : Rajesh Rajgor

Q & A , Nalin Mehta, MD and CEO, Mahindra Truck and Bus Limited.

Empowering Transporters

Q. Away from building and selling commercial vehicles, what have the seven MPOWER programmes and two Mentor summits delivered?

A. There was an impression that the young generation is not excited about venturing into the transport industry. The amount of hard work and dedication shown by young transporters at the MPOWER Programme, which we conduct with IIM (Ahmedabad), tells a different story. How excited they were was more than visible when we challenged them with the MPOWER War Room. They were told to implement what they learned during the course. Close to 26 case studies were short-listed in the first MPOWER War Room. It did not take long to realise that the young transporters are eager to venture into the transportation industry, They want to however break away from the trodden path; drive in more professionalism. The Mentor programme thus was the outcome of the learnings from the MPOWER youth programme. The veterans felt that their prodigies carried a false impression of having learnt it all. While they understood that one of the gains that will surface from the Mentors’ Summit will be networking but the extent of that networking surprised us. They (veteran and his prodigy) may not be competing in every area, and through these programmes they have learnt how to collaborate. This is something that we think has been delivered.

Q. How has such an endeavour reflected on the sale of your commercial vehicles?

A. We are new in a marketplace that contains brands that have been there for 30-40 years. The whole business is about relationship and trust. It is necessary to understand that every activity should not be linked and converted into sales. If you see these things and then judge whether we have gained or not; the gains are bigger than what you see on the ground. The gain is not just in terms of people, we have touched; we have created a relationship. Many transporters for instance won’t even give us a hearing. They are big in their own ways and have large fleets. The relationship that has been developed assures that we are heard. It also helps towards building mutual trust. This reduces the resistance, and increases their propensity to look at our brand. Our trucks and buses are a little ahead of its time. By creating a mindset for the future, we are creating a place for ourselves. So to measure the success of our programme in terms of sales is not right. When it comes to the market share, we have a very good amount of it. There are only two OEMs who have grown in market share. Last month (June 2015) we recorded a 3.3 per cent market share in HCV and about 9 per cent market share in LCV segment. We sold about 1100 LCVs and HCVs.

 

Q. How would the announcement to invest Rs. 500 crore relate to performance in terms of sales?

A. One part of the investment will be towards the expansion of our current product range and to enter into Intermediate Commercial Vehicles (ICVs). Second part will go into a new range of LCVs, and in the design of new cabin and a new chassis. Third part will go into the upgrading of the current product range. A BS IV vehicle has to be engineered; new variants of the existing products are to be brought out. There’s also a 49-tonne (tractor-trailer) that will come. We are also doing a 8×4 tipper. We are also doing a rig version for the tube well drilling industry. As you may have found out, we are continuously investing money. It will take us three years to bring the ICV. So I see MTBL (Mahindra Truck and Bus Ltd.) to be a significant player in the next three years.

 

Q. Are you still using Navistar engines for your trucks?

A. Yes, the engine is from Navistar. As you are aware, we had a joint venture with Navistar. We have a perpetual technology agreement and we pay royalty to them. Any further developments we do in the engine is our own, and they can take it from us at a price. The engine is very fuel efficient. Even more fuel efficient versions will keep coming as fuel efficiency is a never ending game. Right now our engines are as good or even better than the class leading products. Everyone claims that their engines are class leading. We are saying it on the basis of the share we are gaining. It is a proof that we are moving in the right direction. Our cabin is the best in the industry. Our chassis and aggregates are the strongest. Many of our trucks have gone past three lakh kilometres and the robustness is still the same. We have got feedback that even after using for four years the cabin is as intact as it was when new. The common-rail engine we have, we will offer in our 40 and 25-tonne vehicle. The wet liner technology does not mean the complete engine has to be pulled down to overhaul. We have individual heads for every cylinder. Every bit need not be taken apart. Apart from a modern engine, our cabins are also modern. They have been crash tested, and as of today there is no need to add more safety elements to it. The cabins are already 10 years ahead of their time. We have followed norms that are still not mandatory in our country. It can therefore travel to any developed country right now.

 

Q. Does the engine perform in terms of regulations?
A. The engine is already BS III emission compliant. It will take minor (after treatment) work to upgrade it to BS IV.

 

Q. How do you look at driver shortage. Are you planning any empowering programme for them?

A. The transport excellence awards that we present include an award for drivers. We gave one driver a truck and made him the owner. We gave one truck to the first women driver, Yogita Raghuwanshi. Each year we award drivers. There references are provided by fleet operators. This is our way of encouraging drivers; by motivating them to become a truck owner. The first driver whom we gave this award has already bought another truck. We are also conducting Mahindra Saarthi Abhiyan where we give scholarships to the daughters of truck drivers who strived to educate their daughters beyond tenth standard. We see it as recognising the efforts of the driver. The girl can opt for any course she may like. We give Rs.10,000 as scholarship. We would have dispersed one-crore rupees last year. Even this year we will conduct the Mahindra Saarthi Abhiyan.

 

Q. How big is the MTBL dealership network?

A. In the last three years we have set up close to 63 facilities. In addition, we have close to 53 authorised service stations, which also act as expert local workshops. We have trained 1400 local mechanics, which are connected through our call center. They also act as our road side assistance (RSA) points. So if a truck has met with an accident, the operator calls our call center. The call center in turn calls the nearest RSA point. It reaches the location of breakdown and conducts the repairs. Our call center is multi-lingual, and manned by engineers. The prime service center at Pune is where the call center is. The call center thus doubles up as a service center. So, when the driver calls, it is easier to figure out if a ASC (Authorised Service center) or a RSA should be pressed into
the job.

Staying ahead

Article by: Staying ahead

Q & A : Ravi Pisharody, Executive Director — Commercial Vehicles, Tata Motors

Interview by : Bhushan Mhapralkar

Q. What growth will the CV industry achieve?

A. We are seeing more of what we saw last year. M&HCV sales continue to grow at 20-25 per cent, driven by cargo. Cargo M&HCVs are growing at 30 per cent on replacement demand. Tipper and construction truck part, which accounts for 30 per cent, is flat. Not like 2010-11, which saw the last big purchase. Replacement demand is connected with resale value. Demand is also coming from clients that are asking operators to buy new trucks, which are efficient and have a faster turnaround time. On October 01, 2015, some regions will move to BS IV emission norms. ABS and speed limiter will be implemented from October 01 as well. Some pre-buying to offset three to four per cent price hike is expected. We however want IIP (Industrial GDP) and mining recovery to come in. Also, agriculture. The base effect is kicking in. Buses (4 to 11-tonne) performed better in the first quarter. Small pick-ups have seen no major impact. It is essential to look at each segment. M&HCVs are growing at 20 to 25 per cent and Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs) are declining. Companies with a complete range hold the chance of looking adverse in the short-term.

 

Q. What impact would regulations have on growth?

A. Regulations are a part, and also the return of some of the growth drivers like the move up to higher tonnage vehicles, tractor-trailers, etc. Today, tractor trailers are the fastest growing; two-axle trucks are the least growing. Customers want to invest in new segments. The 49-tonne segment for example. Introduced six years ago, this segment almost vanished during recession. It is coming back. Also, the move to higher hp. We led the movement from 150 hp to 180 hp in 2010-11. We are seeing a move up to 230 hp trucks from 200 hp. Even multi-axle designs due to more open competition. All the big names are here. It is obvious that people would like to differentiate. A movement towards higher spec products is on therefore. Regulations like ABS and speed limiters will help.

 

Q. What about alternate fuel technologies?

A. Government is trying to get some sort of electric play, and we want to be at the fore-front of it. In the area of hybrid buses mainly. The biggest area for electric play is the city hybrid bus. We are piloting a vehicle for almost four years now. We are trying to talk to the government and frame the FAME programme; to make it commercially viable. A BMTC order is part of that programme. We qualified for a hybrid tender BMTC floated. The price of the product is making it a bit of an issue. A strong push is necessary for alternative fuel technology or hybrid. We were expecting a larger outlay by the government in the budget. We expect it to come.

 

Q. So, buses are seeing a technological leap?

A. We are working towards executing an order for articulated buses for Hubli-Dharwad by December. There was no articulated bus purchase for many years. Higher unit price is difficult to afford. Technology is slowly moving up. For JNNURM recognition, many bus body builders are becoming bigger, professional and more efficient. With Bus body code fully implemented on August 01, 2015, ‘Mickey Mouse’ body builders will find it hard to derive a cost advantage. This is good for companies like Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland. Buses are highly regulated, and have a socialist agenda associated. They need the right permit; need to be allotted a route. Also, seen is if the state transport undertaking will be affected. Issues like these may not make hybrid buses viable. State transport undertakings cannot increase prices, and for a better experience, the need will be to recover costs by charging higher.

 

Q. What about the luxury bus segment?

A. For upmarket body builders it is like a boutique work. The super luxury high deck coaches are worth Rs.70 to Rs.80 lakh. The body price is five times the price of the chassis. Conversely, in a typical school bus, the price of the body and the price of the chassis are the same. Thus, a bus body is not small, and the reason why we invested in a company. With regulations, the body is becoming more expensive. Unlike China where the bus market is 50 per cent of the truck market, in India it is 15 to 20 per cent of the truck market. It will remain limited.

Q. How will competition impact?

A. As far as competition is concerned, we are of the opinion that everybody has to be in India. There is no excuse for any company to be not there in Brazil, India, Russia, and China. In Brazil and India especially. BharatBenz has laid out everything they promised in the 9-tonne to 49-tonne range. They will get a chance. Especially in those markets that regard foreign as hi-tech. Making a transition from three players to eight players, the market will see some market share correction in the short term. Many may appear in the long term. There would be no permanent repercussions with new entrants like Suzuki launching an SCV. Measured in primary sales, market share will see some inflow. The need however is to look at it 18 to 24 months down the line, and if it is sustaining. For us, the challenge is quite enormous. We are not undermining it. We have to protect from an Ace Zip to a Prima truck, or a DTC bus. Different competitors are focussing on different areas. With 60-70 per cent market share, we will have to anticipate and identify gaps. Some even though we do not find it interesting.

 

Q. Is government participation absolutely necessary for FAME?

A. Without government support it is not viable to participate. Not unless there’s certain volume. The battery and some of the key items cannot be localised. Dialogue is on, and while it may have been a little late for the JNNURM tender, there is a tender MMRDA has floated for 25 hybrid buses. MMRDA will run a hybrid bus service from Bandra-Kurla Complex. Despite a policy in principal, it is becoming a bit staggering to support 40-50 per cent subsidy. It amounts to Rs.40 or Rs.50 lakhs for a low-floor hybrid bus. If one were to sell 100 buses, so much money is involved. It is here that the authorities are struggling to try and give a mass face to the programme. Buses are going to benefit mass users but the number of vehicles they can showcase is only this much.

 

Q. How do you look at competitors who lashed on to certain segments?

A. A competitor exploited tipper segments in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Today, the numbers that we see are very low. MAN, Navistar did not get the sort of trial a BharatBenz or a Volvo got. From their numbers, available in the public domain, it is clear that they are not getting the benefit of the 20-30 per cent upturn. The need is to look at staying power; those who have back-end technology. If you don’t have back-end technology, you have tie-ups taking place. There are some who have preferred to go on their own. We will have to wait and see. Some are seen crossing 500 units a month, which is less than two or three per cent market share. It is therefore easy to understand why BharatBenz came to be the third largest player very quickly in the M&HCV segment. The only other player is Eicher. It is in the 9- to 16-tonne range. The moment BharatBenz went up to 800-900 units, they announced that they have become the third largest player.

 

Q. What do you hope to achieve by expanding the dealer network?

A. Before Ace came, there was no touch and feel factor associated. We expanded from 300-400 touch points to 1000 touch points with the Ace and Magic. Existing dealers invested; new dealers were appointed; at locations (inside cities and towns) were the Ace could ply but not a big truck. The current wave began two years ago with the need to compete with new players. Ensure showroom experience. New technology like BS III and BS IV calls for a laptop to repair vehicles. A strong transformation to fully built vehicles is on. In buses it has reached 70 to 80 per cent. One may not want to experiment with more expensive products like the Ultra and Prima. Some of the sales outlets (1S) have expanded to include three to four service bays for SCVs. Coming to include programmes like 24×7 assistance, apart from expanding current locations and establishing new locations we are focussing on proper connectivity of service centres. We expect our network to reach 4000 touch points by the end of FY17 from the existing 3000 touch points.

 

Q. With many dealers stressed, how do you look at their ability to modernise?

A. Over 60 to 70 per cent of the revenues come from trucks, and the recovery is helping. CV numbers may not be picking up yet, the revenues are higher than that of the previous year. This is good for vendors, and for the channel partners. Return on investment is measured in revenues rather than the number of vehicles sold. Sale of eight to 10 Ace Zips can be made up by the sale of one big truck. Similarly, sale of five to six Ace or Magic can be made up by the sale of one truck. This will also explain why the M&HCV recovery is so critical. Keen to maintain the dealership structure or culture, we would not like a dealership to fail. In case of a CV dealership, due diligence can be exasperating. It can take one-and-a-half year to issue a letter of intent. It will take another one year for the dealership structure to be established. If is therefore, that we are talking about a lead time of up to FY17.

 

Q. How popular are fully-built trucks?

A. Multi-axle tipper sales account for 100 per cent fully-built units. Tractor-trailers already come with a cabin. The issue is with multi-axle trucks. Insistence on cowls is there. In the 16-tonne to 25-tonne multi-axle truck category, the market remains value conscious. Customers in this category prefer a wooden cabin as costs are low. In case of an accident, the cost of a wooden cabin is not as high as a fully-built vehicle cabin. We have embarked on an education programme, but the per centage of fully-built vehicles in the the category is still at less than 10 per cent.

 

Q. What about exports?

A. We have been exporting for 20 years. It is however not enough to balance against a domestic down cycle. Availability of Prima, Ultra, and SuperAce with a 1.4-litre common-rail diesel engine will help us to reduce our dependence on SAARC markets like Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. These markets don’t have a local brand. There are export markets that we are in, which include European brands. Our products compare well on appearance and specs, and offer a 10 per cent price advantage. We are getting repeat orders from the Middle East, South Africa and other markets. Planning to go up from 45,000 units last year to 1,50,000 units in a three-to-four year time frame, our first quarter results show that we have grown by 35 per cent on export numbers. We have launched pick-ups in a number of Asian markets like Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Australia. We are already present in Africa. In Thailand we are diversifying our range beyond Xenon, to trucks. We will soon begin export of SuperAce Mint. We will also launch a refreshed Xenon with extended space cab. Half the Thailand market is about space cab pick-ups. In Tunisia we started an assembly operation. We also have a manufacturing JV in South Africa. We entered the Saudi Arabia market in 2013. In the manner in which Suzuki had to develop a diesel engine for India, we had to develop a petrol engine for the export (left hand drive) variant of the Ace.

 

Q. What about regulations and technology when it comes to exports?

A. Unless we have a critical mass in a Euro 6 product, we may not look at Europe. It is an extremely expensive proposition. A declining market with solid home grown players can be an expensive affair. The products that we are going with are not leaps and bounds ahead in terms of technology. Though more developed than us, many markets are yet to reach the BS IV levels. In many markets we have had to go back to BS II specs to export some of our products. We will therefore go with our products where there is a scale for our technology. We are investing in Australia. It is one of our lead markets from the technology stand point. We are looking at automatic transmission on a pick-up with Australia as a lead. We are also working on Euro 5 and Euro 6 because it will come to India in 2019 and 2022. Our presence in some of the export markets is giving us a head-start to go into some of the technologies rather than wait and scramble at the last minute. It is an enormous task across cars and commercial vehicles.

 

Q. What are your capex plans?

A. We have been anticipating competition, exports, and in a sense that the capex, which is somewhere between 1500 and 2000 numbers, will continue. There is hardly any product in which we are investing only for exports. We are planning an AMT in an ICV category vehicle. The two big cabin-platform investments – Prima and Ultra – are behind us. Not expecting dramatic rise in sales, platform renovation will continue. We invested in capacity in the past. When the M&HCV capacity was running short at Lucknow. As a result we got good growth in 2010-11 and 2011-12. If we had not expanded at Lucknow, or if Tata Cummins would not have setup a facility at Phaltan, we would have fallen short. We have also invested at Dharwad for SCVs. We are facing issues of under utilisation for past three-four years, but the capex is focussed on product design and development; very little on facilities for the next five to six years.

 

Q. Is the market discount oriented yet?

A. The market is still heavily discount oriented. We have capped our discounts. We don’t want to be a discount leader despite having in excess of 70 per cent market share. We feel it is a better long-term measure at the cost of some short-term loss till the market gets better. We are seeing a strong recovery in South. The fall in that market was also the largest. This is over a four year cycle. We are not missing any particular segment, product-to-product. The Prima 4018 and 3118 continue to lead their respective segments.

 

Q. You have bagged defence orders?

A. Defence is a business waiting to happen. Even before this government came in, over the last three-four years, there has been sufficient talk about buying from the Indian private sector. Before the ‘Made in India’ thing came about. We have been asked to put our vehicle on trial. It is a big ticket – in the 6×6 and 8×8 segment. These vehicles have not been bought from India. Replacement demand for such defence vehicles is thus coming up. While we want to export more defence vehicles, ‘Make in India’ is really applicable in defence vehicles. The 6×6 quotation was received in 2011-12. As trials go on for longer periods, we have received an order now.

Technology Safety through design

Bookmark and Share

Story by : Bhushan Mhapralkar

Safety beyond ABS and ESP could begin at the design stage, and has the potential to be more effective in eliminating issues like blind spots.

Trucks with a snout is the thing of the past. The Tata 1210L is long history, and so is the Hindustan Bedford J Series. Also, some of the trucks with a bonnet that came out of Ashok Leyland. Except for the Tata SE, most trucks in India, like the ones in Europe, are of the forward control variety. Buses too. If this is a reminder of the fact that British truck makers at one time actively promoted the ‘farsighted-ness’ of the cabs their trucks and buses were fitted with, and to an extent where Atkinson, at the 1966 CV Motor Show in UK unveiled the ultimate ‘all-seeing’ cab, the subject of how well the driver can see has been a subject of much scrutiny throughout the commercial vehicle history the world over.

Aligned with the Construction Logistics and Cyclist Safety (CLOCS) programme in UK, truck manufacturers DAF, MAN, Mercedes-Benz and Scania showcased new vehicles that are better able to protect other road users. Emphasising improvement in safety through design, and thinking beyond the UNECE R29.02 cab strength regulations that involve two cab tests – front impact and static roof strength test and an optional impact test on the cab’s rear wall, European commercial vehicle manufacturers are looking far ahead. Beyond the regulations that are known to be the most stringent, they are striving to improve safety through design.

 

Improvement in safety through design

Improvement in safety through design is made more complex by the fact that many roads in the older parts of Europe were not designed to support the kind of trucks that find their way there today. It is an example that would fit the situation in India too. With footpaths in cities and towns of India either non-existent or encroached upon, the contact between people and vehicles has risen to dangerous levels. Made more complex by a certain lack of road design and maintenance among other factors, even highways and expressways are putting safety at stake. India, in 2013, registered the highest number of road accident related deaths in the world, at 1.38 lakh. Beyond the mandatory fitment of ABS in new trucks above 12-tonne GVW, and buses above 5-tonnes, there is a need to find new ways to improve safety through design. A slimmer A-pillar for example.

Thicker A-pillars, flatter windscreens and large mirror clusters in M&HCVs are known to induce lateral blind spots. It was the demand for ever-stronger cabs that is said to have led to such a situation. The revised ECE R29.03 regulation that will come into effect in Europe from January 31, 2017, is claimed to call for even thicker A-pillars. If the sheer physical size and higher cab position made it essential to engineer thicker A-posts, the longer and heavier doors with ever increasing mirror sizes also meant that the A-pillars were thick and strong. The demand for new generation of long-nose trucks that could appear on the European roads by 2022 has added another element of debate, and at the core is the fact that there is a need to improve safety through design by ensuring elemination of blind spots.

 

Blind spot elimination

In an urban and semi-urban context, many accidents are caused by the driver of a commercial vehicle (trucks especially) failing to see or notice another road user. The inability to detect another road user is born out of a limited field of vision. When Volvo began work on the new FH truck, drastic design changes were made. The A-pillars of the new FH are thus upright and slimmer. The rear view mirrors are slimmer; the mirror housing turns rather than just the glass inside the casing. Even if it is not offered in India as yet, the FH, in Europe, could be had with a small but significant icon just besides the rear-view mirrors on the passenger side. Fitted into the A-pillar, when the icon lights up, it indicates that ‘Lane Changing Support’ has spotted something in the blind spot area, and the driver should refrain from changing lane until it’s clear. Daimler in Europe has also introduced a blind spot detection technology last year. According to Daimler India Commercial Vehicle spokesperson, the technology warns drivers of the presence of other road users when the truck is turning. While the elimination of blind spots would help to reduce accidents, in countries like India where road conditions are crowded, the challenge is the cost involved. These modern technologies would be extremely costly for implementation in mass market applications, both in terms of development cost as well as the product cost, she averred. She further expressed, that there is a need to develop innovative solutions that are suitable for mass market application in India, which cost less.

 

Cost and mass market appeal

Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle manufacturer, Asia Motor Works (AMW) Ltd. is offering two technologies towards the elimination of blind spots. One is mirror-based and the other is camera-based. Shamprasad Ponkshe, Executive Vice President – R&D, AMW, stated that there is a need to develop a (blind spot detection) technology that addresses the requirements and limitations of the respective market rather than adapt a costly technology. The price of mirror-based blind spot detection technology is a few hundred-rupees to a few thousand-rupees. That of the camera-based system is between Rs. 5000 to Rs. 25000 according to Ponkshe. Ponkshe stated that AMW is working with some camera manufacturers to develop a low cost solution, and a technology that will greatly help to eliminate the blind spots and provide considerable relief to drivers. He explained, “It is very crucial that the operators have a range of technology options, that cater to their requirements, based on individual application needs.” Drawing attention to the various categories of mirrors that have been defined in the Central Motor Vehicles Rules (CMVR), Dr. A K Jindal, Head- ERC, Commercial Vehicles, Tata Motors, opined, “For enhanced safety there have been many research studies to further enhance the vision around vehicles through various indirect means. At Tata Motors, we are evaluating various technologies for detecting blind spots around vehicles.”

 

Individual application needs

The need to address individual application needs is of paramount importance. It may call for an amount of modularity to be engineered into the safety system. There’s also the need for a solution or a system to stand up to the Indian operating conditions. Mere adaption will not do. There is no doubt, that Indian customers would welcome an advanced technology like remotely operated 360-degree blind spot camera, but not at the current price, which is prohibitive. “A price tag of around Rs. 3000 to Rs. 8000 could be palatable. Providing such a cost effective solution that withstands harsh environment like stone hits, dusty environment, vibrations and temperature is a challenge for automotive manufacturers,” expressed Ponkshe. While Dr. Jindal stressed upon the importance of such technologies in trucks and buses, there’s also the need for such technologies to be incorporated at the design stage. Especially in the Indian context where the level of human-machine contact is dangerously high.

Many odds are stacked against a commercial vehicle driver. Compared to the design change in terms of rear-view mirrors, the advanced blind spot detection technologies that European CV makers like Volvo have introduced on their trucks, none have found their way into India. If and when they do, they may not be attractive enough for a buyer because of the cost. The need therefore is to offer solutions that may have been inspired by technologies that have evolved in other parts of the world, but are priced at a level where an average Indian trucker will find them affordable as well as usable.

Transporting the taste of India

Article by: Anirudh Raheja

Story by : Anirudh Raheja

With over six decades of dominance in the dairy business, Amul’s supply chain is what helps it to maintain the lead.

Milk and dairy products have a very limited shelf life. They are highly perishable food products, and are dependent on a fail proof supply chain. What makes it complex is the involvement of thousands of people in a country that is not just big but also very diverse. Responsible for spurring India’s white revolution, the company has been striving to offer quality milk and dairy products. And, in a scenario where experts believe that the milk production in the country will reach 200 million Metric Tonnes (MT) per annum by 2020, growing at the rate of 4.5 per cent every year. With the kind of growth experts envisage, it is essential for a milk and dairy product giant like Amul, which is a Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd. (GCMMF) brand, to further strengthen its supply chain; build a healthy and efficient logistics structure to ensure swift and timely transportation of the perishable products it manufactures. “Considering the fact that each truck (bulk carrier) has an average capacity of 7000-litres, 1100 trucks are approximately required to carry pouch milk to the market. Of the total milk receipt, 110 lakh litres of milk is sold in milk pouches,” says R.S. Sodhi, Managing Director, GCMMF. GCMMF has already installed a milk processing capacity of 240 lakh litres per day. It has been consistently increasing milk procurement at a CAGR of 10 per cent over the last decade.

 

Standard insulated tanker design for raw milk collection

Since its inception in the year 1946, milk and dairy products under the Amul brand have been an integral part of GCMMF. Based at Anand, GCMMF operates over 59 dairy plants across India. These plants receive more than 2000 milk tankers having a capacity that ranges between 20- and 25-kilolitre per day. From the 17 district level member unions of Gujarat, Amul has been procuring 160 lakh litres of milk per day. This comes from over 3.6 lakh farmers spread across 18,500 villages of Gujarat. For swift and efficient collection of milk, and across a vast landscape, so that it does not perish, GCMMF has introduced a standard design of insulated tankers of SS 304 internal surface. “By using such type of vehicles, we are able to maintain raw milk temperature in the range of four-degree to six-degree while in transit. This is sufficient to maintain milk quality as the tankers are received from distances as far as 400 km.” Sodhi explains. Thus, over a period of 24 hours, the storage of milk in tankers is subjected to no more than a one or two-degree centigrade temperature fluctuation.

 

Outsourcing trucks for supply of processed milk and dairy products

Unlike the SS tankers that are used to transfer raw milk, processed milk stored in packages, apart from the other dairy products that GCMMF produces, are distributed among four sub heads. Due consideration is given to their tendency to perish, and the distance they will travel until they are consumed. To maintain a robust mechanism to ensure timely delivery, rather than owning trucks directly, GCMMF is laying stress on outsourced vehicles. According to Sodhi, each vehicle is managed by GCMMF officials, and has to comply with the set terms and conditions. These terms and conditions are in line with the terms and conditions set by the relevant government authorities for the transportation of milk and dairy products in India. The advantage that GCMMF or Amul derives is that they can directly manage their logistics. GCMMF sources term their logistics structure as four traffic distribution highways. These are listed on the basis of fresh products, ambient products, refrigerated products and frozen products.

For fresh products like pouch milk, buttermilk and Dahi, insulated trucks are used for distribution. These trucks transport the products from the dairy plant to the final retail outlet in less than six hours. “To manage this highly time sensitive distribution, Amul has production facilities close to its major markets. This aids in covering the distribution of products within the 250 to 300 km radius of where the products are made,” expresses Sodhi. Open trucks or containers are deployed to transport products like milk powders, flavoured milk, UHT cream and milk under ambient product distribution. Refrigerated vans transport products like butter, cheese, cheese spread and ice cream. These are fitted with data loggers to track temperature, which has to be in the range of 0-4 degree throughout the journey. For ice cream and a few other frozen products, the temperature has to be maintained in the sub-zero range. From o to -18 degree. Data loggers are a must in such a case. Product units of ambient and refrigerated products are located in Gujarat. The supply chain for these products is accordingly designed to be swift and efficient. States Sodhi, “The pan-India distribution is covered from Gujarat in full truck loads whereas a multi modal transportation mode is used for ambient products transported to eastern and north eastern sectors. In case the demand is high, Amul also sources vehicles from the open market.”

 

Specially designed crates ensure efficient and safe transportation

To ensure milk pouches are not damaged during transit, specially designed milk crates are used by GCMMF. These make it ease to stack the crates in cold storage as well as in a refrigerated truck container. The crates are manually loaded in either case. For ice cream, GCMMF owns India’s largest cold chain with a fleet of more than 700 vehicles of various capacities depending upon the size of the market. The fleet is equipped with Vehicle Tracking System (VTS) and GPS technology. “Route optimisation of each vehicle is done through SAP, which facilitates to reduce the transportation cost and achieve a faster turnaround time, in the process improving overall efficiency,” Sodhi avers. Amul is also working towards expanding its ice cream manufacturing setup by setting up facilities closer to the markets. This will help GCMMF to cut down on freight cost and also reduce the associated risks.

 

Rolling out of the barn

A market leader in packed milk segment, contributing a good deal to GCMMF’s revenues are allied products such as ice cream, butter, etc. The biggest dairy plant of GCMMF is at Gandhinagar as of current. It has a milk processing capacity of 35 lakh litres per day. To feed a populous country like India, organisations like GCMMF need robust mechanisms, from the barn to the retailer. It is interesting therefore to understand how GCMMF’s business rolls out of a barn. Each member of the village dairy co-operative society visits the society premises to deliver raw milk. Raw milk is stored in bulk coolers of varied capacities. These ideally range between 5000 and 15000 kilolitres. Care is taken to ensure that the milk does not lose its freshness. Milk is thus chilled at less than four-degree. The intention is also to not let it spoil. It would not take much for the harsh external environment to spoil raw milk. Raw milk is subjected to qualitative tests such as FAT and SNF to ensure that it is unadulterated. The milk is then sent for further processing. It is transferred from bulk coolers to district co-operative union in insulated stainless steel milk tankers in less than two to three hours. To eliminate any chance of pilferage or adulteration during transit, GCMMF has introduced a pilferage proof locking system as a standard mechanism in tankers. “At the dairy plant, we check for Urea, Hydrogen peroxide, detergent adulteration along with 18 other tests to rule out any adulteration in milk,” explains Sodhi.

 

Designing a logistic matrix

Close to 10,000 wholesale dealers are selling Amul milk and milk products. The chain percolates down to another 10 lakh retailers pan-India. For FY15, GCMMF achieved a turnover of Rs.20,733 crore, up a whopping 159 per cent when compared to a turnover of Rs. 8,005 crore in FY10. States Sodhi, that his organisation aims to achieve a turnover of more than Rs.30,000 crore in FY20. Laying higher emphasis on operational efficiency, GCMMF has been conducting driver training programs twice every year. The syllabus includes a study and training in safe driving and hygiene. As the supply chain involves transportation of milk and dairy products, it is absolutely essential that hygiene is taken good care of. Working towards minimising transshipment and inter dairy product transfer, which would allow the organisation to reduce the carbon footprint even as it operates a large fleet as part of its cold chain, GCMMF, says Sodhi, is designing a logistic matrix to match the demand versus production facilities at various dairy plants. A big outcome expected is higher efficiency of logistics and reduction in costs. So, the next time you happen to pass by a banner of an Amul advertisement, and see a girl proudly posing with a slice of bread with Amul butter on it, please take some time out to think how an organisation based at Anand is feeding a populous nation with fresh and high quality milk and dairy products. The mantra of unity in diversity will be clear at once.

 

SIAM Taking Stock

Bookmark and Share
Article by: CV

LCVs remain an area of concern

The Indian automotive industry produced a total of 9,784,602 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in April-August 2015 as against 9,608,075 in April-August 2014, registering a marginal growth of 1.84 per cent over the same period last year. The Commercial Vehicles segment registered a growth of 6.03 per cent in April-August 2015 as compared to same period last year. Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs) registered a growth at 26.96 per cent while Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) declined by 5.69 per cent during April-August 2015 over the same period last year. Three Wheeler sales declined by 9.30 per cent in April-August 2015 over the same period last year. Passenger Carrier and Goods Carrier sales declined by 9.78 per cent, and 6.96 per cent respectively in April-August 2015 over April-August 2014. In the area of exports, Commercial Vehicles posted a growth of 25.86 per cent.

In August 2015, 23,016 M&HCVs were sold in the domestic market, up 35.39 per cent when compared to 23,016 units during the corresponding period last year. In August 2015, 29,182 LCVs were sold, down 7.41 per cent when compared to 31,518 numbers sold during the corresponding period last year. In August 2015, 46,124 three wheelers were sold, posting a decline of 12.23 per cent when compared to 52,550 units sold in the corresponding period last year.